Professional Democrats have many fears about the 2022 midterm elections that keep them up at night.
Chief among them: losing Congress and handing over investigative powers and the ability to set the Washington agenda to Kevin McCarthy and Mitch McConnell. Granting Republicans full control over states where abortion remains contested. Seeing President Biden turned prematurely into a lame duck.
Somewhere near the top of that list is the concern that voters will elect Donald Trump’s preferred candidates to the office of secretary of state, a job that in many states plays a critical role in safeguarding the right to vote, while also ensuring the smooth operation and fairness of the electoral system.
To put it plainly, the widespread worry on the left is that Trump’s loyalists will guarantee his re-election in 2024 if they take power in 2022. It’s not something either Trump or these candidates labor especially hard to rebut.
Secretary of state is not a glamorous gig, generally speaking; it’s primarily an administrative job, and tends to attract little attention from the public and press. That changed significantly in battleground states after the Trump-fueled election chaos in 2020, and now money and attention are pouring into secretary of state races — not least because the former president has made it his mission to elect Republican candidates who back his conspiracy theories.
It’s easy to tell what Trump wants: total fealty. It’s often far harder to figure out what voters want.
Enter a new poll of five swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota and Nevada — that was shared with The New York Times in advance of its publication. The survey, which polled 1,400 people who are likely to vote in November, was conducted by David Binder Research on behalf of iVote, a group that backs Democrats in secretary of state races.
Interpreting the findings, which focus not on candidates but on voters’ views about what they think is important in a secretary of state, is a tricky business.
The poll found that 82 percent of likely voters rated “accurately tabulating votes in elections and certifying results” as an extremely important responsibility. Additionally, 67 percent said they would be much more likely to support a candidate “who will prioritize options for all voters and making sure every vote is counted.”
Card 1 of 5
The state of the midterms. We are now over halfway through this year’s midterm primary season, and some key ideas and questions have begun to emerge from the results. Here’s a look at what we’ve learned so far:
A surprisingly tight race. Despite President Biden’s low approval ratings, Democrats are roughly tied with Republicans among voters ahead of the midterm elections. According to a New York Times/Siena College poll, 41 percent of registered voters said they preferred Democrats to control Congress compared with 40 percent who preferred Republicans.
Trump’s waning influence? While former President Donald J. Trump’s endorsements have helped propel some candidates to primary victories, he’s also had notable defeats. The losses have emboldened Mr. Trump’s rivals, who see an opening for a post-Trump candidate in 2024, and a recent poll found that half of G.O.P. voters are ready to leave Mr. Trump behind.
Democrats’ risky bet. As Democratic leaders warn loudly of right-wing threats to democracy, their campaign arms have been attempting to influence Republicans primaries in hopes of elevating far-right candidates that they believe will be easier to beat in the fall. The governor’s race in Illinois is the most expensive example yet of this high-risk strategy.
Election deniers rise. Republican voters have nominated several candidates who have spread falsehoods about the 2020 election and sowed distrust in American democracy, and who are now vying for offices that will hold significant sway over the 2024 presidential election. But in places like Colorado, election denialism has its limits.
And when the survey is broken down between those who said that Biden won fairly and those who espoused the false view that the election was stolen from Trump, a remarkable symmetry emerges: Supermajorities on both sides express concern that “elected officials will attempt to overturn the will of the people,” for instance, but of course each group is worried about the other team subverting the true results — and each group differs on what those are.
Ellen Kurz, the founder and president of iVote, has been focused on secretary of state races for nearly a decade, she said in an interview. In 2018, the group spent $7 million helping elect Democrats in Arizona and Michigan who later became important players in the 2020 election.
This year, iVote has a budget of more than twice that amount — $15 million, which it plans to spend on broadcast, cable and digital advertising to bolster its candidates.
Kurz argued that Republicans had been trying to suppress the votes of people of color and other key Democratic blocs since well before Trump took the national stage — but that his obsession with election fraud and claims of a stolen election have turbocharged those efforts.
“I believed it was really bad before, but this is a different level,” she said. “It’s at a next level of danger.”
Republicans are also hyperfocused on secretary of state races, led by a group of Trump allies called the America First Secretary of State Coalition along with official groups like the Republican State Leadership Committee.
Let’s break down each of the swing states polled:
On the Republican side, the Trump-backed candidate is Mark Finchem, a state lawmaker who has gone all-in on the former president’s conspiracy theories about 2020.
Finchem is but one of four contenders, a group that also includes Shawnna Bolick, another state lawmaker who also supported throwing out the election results in favor of Trump; Beau Lane, an advertising executive backed by the business community; and Michelle Ugenti-Rita, a state lawmaker who has promoted a number of restrictive voting laws in the Arizona Senate.
The incumbent secretary of state, Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, is running for governor. That has left a vacuum on the Democratic side, with Adrian Fontes, the former recorder of Maricopa County, the state’s largest county, competing for the job against Reginald Bolding, the minority leader of the State House and a voting-rights activist.
For all the national attention these primaries have gotten, they have yet to generate much enthusiasm among actual voters in Arizona. For example, a debate between Fontes and Bolding in May drew an audience of just 70 people, according to The Tucson Sentinel.
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www.nytimes.com
Chief among them: losing Congress and handing over investigative powers and the ability to set the Washington agenda to Kevin McCarthy and Mitch McConnell. Granting Republicans full control over states where abortion remains contested. Seeing President Biden turned prematurely into a lame duck.
Somewhere near the top of that list is the concern that voters will elect Donald Trump’s preferred candidates to the office of secretary of state, a job that in many states plays a critical role in safeguarding the right to vote, while also ensuring the smooth operation and fairness of the electoral system.
To put it plainly, the widespread worry on the left is that Trump’s loyalists will guarantee his re-election in 2024 if they take power in 2022. It’s not something either Trump or these candidates labor especially hard to rebut.
Secretary of state is not a glamorous gig, generally speaking; it’s primarily an administrative job, and tends to attract little attention from the public and press. That changed significantly in battleground states after the Trump-fueled election chaos in 2020, and now money and attention are pouring into secretary of state races — not least because the former president has made it his mission to elect Republican candidates who back his conspiracy theories.
It’s easy to tell what Trump wants: total fealty. It’s often far harder to figure out what voters want.
Enter a new poll of five swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota and Nevada — that was shared with The New York Times in advance of its publication. The survey, which polled 1,400 people who are likely to vote in November, was conducted by David Binder Research on behalf of iVote, a group that backs Democrats in secretary of state races.
Interpreting the findings, which focus not on candidates but on voters’ views about what they think is important in a secretary of state, is a tricky business.
The poll found that 82 percent of likely voters rated “accurately tabulating votes in elections and certifying results” as an extremely important responsibility. Additionally, 67 percent said they would be much more likely to support a candidate “who will prioritize options for all voters and making sure every vote is counted.”
In one indication of just how much traction Trump’s claims still hold over the G.O.P. base, 72 percent of voters who picked Trump in 2020 said the election had been stolen from him. That’s about a third of all voters.
Key Themes From the 2022 Midterm Elections So Far
Card 1 of 5
The state of the midterms. We are now over halfway through this year’s midterm primary season, and some key ideas and questions have begun to emerge from the results. Here’s a look at what we’ve learned so far:
A surprisingly tight race. Despite President Biden’s low approval ratings, Democrats are roughly tied with Republicans among voters ahead of the midterm elections. According to a New York Times/Siena College poll, 41 percent of registered voters said they preferred Democrats to control Congress compared with 40 percent who preferred Republicans.
Trump’s waning influence? While former President Donald J. Trump’s endorsements have helped propel some candidates to primary victories, he’s also had notable defeats. The losses have emboldened Mr. Trump’s rivals, who see an opening for a post-Trump candidate in 2024, and a recent poll found that half of G.O.P. voters are ready to leave Mr. Trump behind.
Democrats’ risky bet. As Democratic leaders warn loudly of right-wing threats to democracy, their campaign arms have been attempting to influence Republicans primaries in hopes of elevating far-right candidates that they believe will be easier to beat in the fall. The governor’s race in Illinois is the most expensive example yet of this high-risk strategy.
Election deniers rise. Republican voters have nominated several candidates who have spread falsehoods about the 2020 election and sowed distrust in American democracy, and who are now vying for offices that will hold significant sway over the 2024 presidential election. But in places like Colorado, election denialism has its limits.
And when the survey is broken down between those who said that Biden won fairly and those who espoused the false view that the election was stolen from Trump, a remarkable symmetry emerges: Supermajorities on both sides express concern that “elected officials will attempt to overturn the will of the people,” for instance, but of course each group is worried about the other team subverting the true results — and each group differs on what those are.
Ellen Kurz, the founder and president of iVote, has been focused on secretary of state races for nearly a decade, she said in an interview. In 2018, the group spent $7 million helping elect Democrats in Arizona and Michigan who later became important players in the 2020 election.
This year, iVote has a budget of more than twice that amount — $15 million, which it plans to spend on broadcast, cable and digital advertising to bolster its candidates.
Kurz argued that Republicans had been trying to suppress the votes of people of color and other key Democratic blocs since well before Trump took the national stage — but that his obsession with election fraud and claims of a stolen election have turbocharged those efforts.
“I believed it was really bad before, but this is a different level,” she said. “It’s at a next level of danger.”
Republicans are also hyperfocused on secretary of state races, led by a group of Trump allies called the America First Secretary of State Coalition along with official groups like the Republican State Leadership Committee.
Let’s break down each of the swing states polled:
Arizona, Aug. 2
These primaries haven’t happened yet, and Democrats and democracy advocates say they are especially crucial.On the Republican side, the Trump-backed candidate is Mark Finchem, a state lawmaker who has gone all-in on the former president’s conspiracy theories about 2020.
Finchem is but one of four contenders, a group that also includes Shawnna Bolick, another state lawmaker who also supported throwing out the election results in favor of Trump; Beau Lane, an advertising executive backed by the business community; and Michelle Ugenti-Rita, a state lawmaker who has promoted a number of restrictive voting laws in the Arizona Senate.
The incumbent secretary of state, Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, is running for governor. That has left a vacuum on the Democratic side, with Adrian Fontes, the former recorder of Maricopa County, the state’s largest county, competing for the job against Reginald Bolding, the minority leader of the State House and a voting-rights activist.
For all the national attention these primaries have gotten, they have yet to generate much enthusiasm among actual voters in Arizona. For example, a debate between Fontes and Bolding in May drew an audience of just 70 people, according to The Tucson Sentinel.
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The Midterm Races That Give Democrats Nightmares
A new poll offers fodder for both parties to claim that voters are on their side in crucial secretary of state elections. Who’s right?